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Q4 19 GDP – Positive Surprise, but Sustainable?

Data released this morning showed real GDP in Nigeria grew by 2.6% YoY in the fourth quarter of 2019. Not only was the outturn for Q4 higher than consensus forecast, as well as our own projection of 2.3%, but it...

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  • Q4 19 GDP – Positive Surprise, but Sustainable?

Data released this morning showed real GDP in Nigeria grew by 2.6% YoY in the fourth quarter of 2019. Not only was the outturn for Q4 higher than consensus forecast, as well as our own projection of 2.3%, but it is 27bps ahead of the growth rate of 2.3% YoY posted in Q3 19. The outing in Q4 relative to the prior quarter largely reflects stronger growth in services (contributed 1.5% to overall growth in Q4), manufacturing and resilient growth in both the agriculture and oil sector.

On balance, Nigeria posted 2.3% YoY growth in full year 2019, reflecting improvement in the services, crude oil and agriculture sectors. On an attribution basis, the services sector contributed 1.2% to overall growth in 2019, with composition to GDP improving to 37% from 36% in 2018.

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