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Persisting Food Pressure Pushes Headline Inflation to 13.71% YoY

Headline CPI ticked up by 49bps to 13.71% YoY, highest since March 2018 Core inflation expanded by 6bps to 10.58% YoY, highest since June 2018 Food index jumped 66bps to 16.66% YoY, dominated by increases in prices of farm produce...

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  • Persisting Food Pressure Pushes Headline Inflation to 13.71% YoY
  • Headline CPI ticked up by 49bps to 13.71% YoY, highest since March 2018
  • Core inflation expanded by 6bps to 10.58% YoY, highest since June 2018
  • Food index jumped 66bps to 16.66% YoY, dominated by increases in prices of farm produce and staple food prices.

The headline inflation index expanded by 1.48% MoM in September, above 1.34% MoM in August and below our estimate of 1.60% MoM (our estimate modelled impact of the increase in electricity tariffs, before the eventual reversal). The increase still reflects the impact of food shortages, which more than outweighed the decline in core inflation during the month of September. The headline index excluding farm produce contracted 11bps to 0.94% MoM and when further adjusted for energy related cost, the headline index fell 15bps relative to the prior month. According to FEWSNET, the rising prices of food (emanating from farm produce) is largely a result of exacerbated flooding in localized areas of the Northeast and atypically high staple food prices during the extended lean season from April/May through the end of September.

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